Climate variability and seasonal weather related to COVID-19

Abstract

In view of the alarming situation related to coronavirus, of particular interest to the public, decision makers, health organizations, experts, professionals (epidemiologists, virologists, infectologists, psychologists, pulmonologists and others), it is also important to obtain seasonal weather outlook with general overview of the weather and climate conditions and how they would potentially affect the state of the COVID-19 transmission because a number of infectious diseases show seasonal features in their incidence. The analysis below represents an attempt to evaluate atmospheric processes that have a different spatiotemporal scale and depend on other modes of climate variability, and patterns of circulation and specific indices that affect seasonal variation and weather characteristics in a region. Based on seasonal outlook, the general impression is that sunny, warmer increase of (1.0 to 2.0°C) and frequently stormy weather conditions expected during May-June 2020 could likely give some optimistic scenario of slowing down the spreading of the virus further. This is confirmed with the further evaluation of the effective reproduction number, that is expected to decrease from 1.8 at middle of April to 1.2 at the end of June 2020. That is approximately 60-70 % reduction during this warmer period. However, the conclusions are still general and should be taken with caution as the situation is changing from day to day and many other factors including climate conditions, population density and medical care quality also play role in virus transmission.